Strong increase forecast for U.S. holiday sales

By

Matthieu Guinebault

Published
Oct 9, 2012

The U.S. National Retail Federation (NRF) announced that it expects a 4.1% increase in sales during the holidays, an upward forecast that the agency describes as its most optimistic since the beginning of the crisis.

Over the last ten years, sales for the same period only rose on average by 3.5%. And the increase announced for 2012 follows an already very good 2011, with a 5.6% increase in apparel sales. However, the NRF tempered its optimism, citing many factors that can disrupt projections on purchases.

"Variables including an upcoming presidential election, confusion surrounding the ‘fiscal cliff’ and concern relating to future economic growth could all combine to affect consumers’ spending plans," said the organization. "But overall we are optimistic that retailers’ promotions will hit the right chord with holiday shoppers."

Regarding e-commerce, the trade association Shop.org expects a 12% increase in turnover, with $ 96 billion in sales. This represents a strong build-up that should enable the sector to grow by 15% in the last quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.