India to remain largest cotton producer in 2017-18

World cotton production and mill use in 2017-18 are estimated at 25.1 million tonnes, which would result in a 9 per cent increase in output and 2 per cent rise in consumption, according to International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). With output projected to increase by 4 per cent to 6 million tonnes, India will remain the world’s largest cotton producer.

China’s cotton production in the same period may rise by 7 per cent to 5.2 million tonnes after four seasons of decline, while Pakistan’s production is projected to increase by 17 per cent to 2 million tonnes.

Although the production forecast for the United States is 4.5 million tonnes, a rise of 20 per cent, the impact of the recent hurricane in Texas, home to around 45 per cent of US cotton production, is yet to be fully assessed, according to a recent ICAC press release.

Washington-based ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries.

Global cotton consumption, which rose by 1 per cent to 24.5 million tonnes in 2016-17 after falling by 2 per cent in 2015-16, is projected to increase by 2 per cent to 25.1 million tonnes in 2017-18. Mill use in China may grow by 1 per cent to 8.1 million tonnes while India’s cotton consumption is predicted to recover by 3 per cent to 5.3 million tonnes.

Mill use in Bangladesh is anticipated to remain stable at 1.4 million tonnes as widespread flooding in August this year has damaged infrastructure and made it difficult to transport goods throughout the country and to run businesses, ICAC said.

World cotton area is projected to expand by 9 per cent during this period to 31.9 million hectares, and the world average yield is projected to remain unchanged at 789 kg per hectare.

World cotton stocks are predicted to remain stable at 18.5 million tonnes at the end of 2017-18, and the world stock-to-use ratio is expected to remain unchanged at about 75 per cent, or nine months of mill use.

China sold over two million tonnes from its national cotton reserve between May and August this year, thereby lowering the reserve to around 6.3 million tonnes at the end of August 2017.

China’s cotton stocks are forecast to decrease another 16 per cent to 8.9 million tonnes, which would account for 48 per cent of world stocks in 2017-18. Ending stocks held outside China are expected to increase by 22 per cent to 9.6 million tonnes in 2017-18.