India’s cotton production may reach 355-360 lakh bales in MY 22-23

Cotton production is set to increase to 355-360 lakh bales due to 8.83% rise in sowing area, favourable weather and good crop conditions in marketing year 2022-23 that begins on October 1. It will be 14-15% higher than last year. However, the increase in production is a debatable issue and actual crop size may vary. 

The government of India has projected a production of 341.9 lakh bales of 170 kg, while the US Department of Agriculture has estimated the production to be around 354 lakh bales. 

According to the latest data from the ministry of agriculture, the production area of cotton in the country has increased by 8.83% to 127.39 lakh hectares from 116.56 lakh hectares last year. In the first advance estimate released by the ministry, it said that the production may increase to 341.90 lakh bales from 312.03 lakh bales in the last season. The government has set a target of producing 370 lakh bales for the new season. Recently, USDA had estimated cotton production in India to be around 354 lakh bales. 

The uncertainty regarding the weather conditions for the cotton crop reduced towards the end of September. In the first fortnight of the current month, there were concerns about the crop due to forecasts of heavy rains during the end of this month in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Some parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat received sporadic rains in the last week of September but there were no reports of excessive rainfall which could have threatened the crop. North India also witnessed rainfall last week when the crop was ready for picking. But market sources said that except minor impact in smaller parts of Haryana, no major losses were reported in north India. 

Last year, north India’s cotton crop was severely damaged from diseases like pink ball worm caused by late monsoon rains. Crop yield reduced in Gujarat and Maharashtra too. Therefore, India's cotton production estimate had come down to 315 lakh bales, as per the last estimate of Cotton Association of India. The government had also reduced production projection to 312 lakh bales in the fourth advance estimate. 

This year, no threats have been predicted for the crop until now. The arrival in north India comprising Punjab, Haryana, upper Rajasthan and lower Rajasthan is increasing continuously. On Thursday, cotton arrival increased to 14,000 bales. Traders estimate that the arrival will reach 30,000 bales very soon. However, the arrival in central and south India is limited. The sowing of the crop was delayed due to uneven rainfall during early monsoon. Rains in early September also slowed the progress of the crop. Presently the daily arrival in Gujarat is around 4,000-5,000 bales. “The arrival will be limited till mid-October, but it is likely to pick up after Diwali. Peak arrival in Indian markets is likely to begin in November,” Chetan Bhojani, a trader from Rajkot, told Fibre2Fashion. 

New cotton prices have witnessed a steep fall in north India despite late arrival and prolong scarcity before the new crop. In north India, October delivery prices have declined to Rs 6,500-6,550 per maund of 37.2 kg. Trade sources indicate that the prices are reeling under pressure due to weak demand from the downstream industry. Buyers are not turning up in the market as they expect prices to fall soon. The sources said that spinning mills are buying limited quantities only for Muhurta production. MNCs have not begun procurement yet. Cotton prices were hovering at Rs 8,500-9,000 per maund in early September. Therefore, the prices have fallen by about 20-24%.