CAI revises 2018-19 cotton crop estimate to 312 lakh bales
today Jul 15, 2019
The Cotton Association (CAI) has downwardly revised its estimate of the cotton crop for 2018-19 season by 3 lakh bales from its previous estimate to 312 lakh bales. For the ongoing season 2018-19 that began on October 1, cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone is at the same level as in CAI’s previous month’s estimate i.e. at 59 lakh bales.
The June estimate of cotton crop for the Central Zone has been increased by 30,000 bales. There is an increase of 3.50 lakh bales for Gujarat state compared to the cotton crop estimate of the CAI made during last month while the crop for Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been reduced by 2.88 lakh bales and 7,000 bales respectively.
The cotton crop for Southern Zone has been reduced by 3.25 lakh bales to 68.50 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 71.75 lakh bales made during last month. The cotton crop for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh states are estimated lower by 2.50 lakh bales and 2.00 lakh bales respectively compared to its previous month’s estimate, whereas the cotton crop estimate for Orissa state is increased by 2,000 bales compared to the CAI’s previous month estimate.
The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to June 2019 is 347.84 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrivals of 303.56 lakh bales up to June 30, 2019, imports of 11.28 lakh bales up to June 30,2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2018 at 33 lakh bales.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to June 2019 at 243.12 lakh bales of 170 kg each, while the export shipment of cotton estimated by the CAI up to June 30, 2019 is 44.10 lakh bales. Stock at the end of June 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 60.62 lakh bales including 33.10 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 27.52 lakh bales with CCI, MNCs and others (traders, ginners, etc).
The yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. up to September 30, 2019 at 376 lakh bales of 170 kg each consisting of the Opening Stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season and imports estimated by the CAI at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. up to September 30, 2019 is 315 lakh bales while the CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, which are lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carry over stock estimated at the end of the season is 15 lakh bales.
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