CAI lowers 2018-19 cotton crop estimate to 340 lakh bales

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 season beginning October 1, 2018, at 340.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which is lower by 3 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 343.25 lakh bales made during last month.  The CAI has reduced crop estimate for Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana compared to its previous estimate.

The CAI has increased the crop estimate for Haryana by 1 lakh bales, while projection for upper Rajasthan, lower Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh has been increased by 50,000 bales each compared to its previous estimate.

However, it has reduced the crop estimated for Gujarat by 3 lakh bales, Maharashtra by 1 lakh bales and Telangana by 1.50 lakh bales compared to the previous estimate due to unfavourable weather conditions.

The CAI has projected total cotton supply during the months of October and November 2018 at 95 lakh bales which consists of the arrival of 70 lakh bales up to November 30, 2018, imports of 2 lakh bales up to November 30, 2018 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season as on October 1, 2018 which the Committee has estimated at 23 lakh bales. 

Further, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October and November 2018 at 54 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton up to 30th November 2018 has been estimated at 10 lakh bales. 

The stock at the end of November 2018 is estimated at 31 lakh bales including 27 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 4 lakh bales are estimated to be held by Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).

The projected yearly Balance Sheet for the Season 2018-19 drawn by the CAI has estimated total cotton supply till end of the season i.e. up to September 30, 2019 at 390.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each which includes opening stock of 23 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, cotton crop for the season at 340.25 lakh bales and imports of 27 lakh bales which are estimated to be higher by 12 lakh bales compared to the import figure of 15 lakh bales estimated for the 2017-18 crop year.

The CAI has estimated domestic consumption for the season at 324 lakh bales while the exports are estimated to be 53 lakh bales which are estimated to be lower by 16 lakh bales compared to the exports of 69 lakh bales estimated during the last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the 2018-19 season is estimated by the CAI at 13.25 lakh bales.