USDA forecasts world 2016/17 cotton output to be up 7%

Driven by increases in Australia and Mali, partially offset by declines in Brazil and the United States, global cotton production in 2016/17 is forecast at 102.7 million bales. This figure revealed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its October report is slightly above the September USDA projection and nearly 7 per cent higher than 2015/16.

The October report forecast the world's harvested area at 29.4 million hectares in 2016/17, 3 per cent below the prior season and the lowest since 1986/87. The global cotton yield is projected at 760 kg per hectare, which is equal to the five year average.

Cotton production is expected to rise in three of the four top producing countries, with China being the exception, with its cotton production projected to decrease 1 million bales to 21.0 million.

Output in India is projected at 26.5 million bales, up marginally from 2015/16 from a rebound in yield, which is expected to be offset from a 10 per cent reduction in cotton area.

The report estimates an US production increase to 16 million bales in 2016/17, while Pakistan’s cotton crop is estimated to expand to nearly 8.3 million bales.

A cotton crop of 4 million bales is forecast for Australia in 2016/17, up from 2.6 million bales last season and that of Brazil at 6.5 million bales, 10 per cent above a season earlier, despite slightly lower acreage.