CAI lowers 2017-18 crop estimate to 362 lakh bales

In its latest estimate of cotton crop for the ongoing 2017-18 crop year, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has lowered the country’s cotton output by 5 lakh bales from its previous month’s estimate. The association now projects India’s cotton production during the current season beginning October 1, 2017 at 362 lakh bales of 170 kg each.

“This lower production estimate of 5 lakh bales consists of 2 lakh bales each now estimated lower in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, while production in ‘other states’ is estimated lower by 1 lakh bales,” CAI president Atul S Ganatra said in a press release.

The CAI has lowered its cotton output estimate mainly due to the crop damage on account of severe pink bollworm infestation and the scarcity of water in some states, Ganatra said.

The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI estimates total cotton supply for the season at 412 lakh bales, which includes opening stock of 30 lakh bales at the beginning of the season and imports which the CAI has retained at 20 lakh bales as in the previous month.

The CAI has estimated domestic consumption at 330 lakh bales which is 10 lakh bales higher than the previous month’s estimate. The increase in consumption estimated for the 2017-18 season is on account of the fact that several new textile mills in Gujarat and other states have already started operations resulting in 35 lakh new spindles.

Moreover, the consumption of raw cotton has also seen a jump, and prices of polyester staple fibre (PSF) have gone up by more than 20 per cent.

The CAI has also estimated an increase in exports for the season from 55 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales because of surge in demand for Indian cotton and increase in ICE futures prices.

The carry-over stock at the end of the current season on September 30, 2018 is estimated to be 22 lakh bales, which is lower by 20 lakh bales than the previous closing stock of 42 lakh bales estimated in the previous month.

As per the data received from various trade sources, the CAI estimates cotton arrivals up to February 28, 2018 at 247.10 lakh bales.